443,000 of those who voted for the ÖVP in the 2019 National Assembly election switched to the Freedom Party this time. This is shown by the voter turnout analysis of Vision for ORF. Around 1.8 million people voted for the People’s Party at that time, compared to only 1.3 million on Sunday. The FPÖ, on the other hand, increased its electoral votes from around 770,000 to 1.4 million.
The FPÖ received significantly more votes from the ÖVP than from the Freedom Party in 2019. According to a 2019 voter turnout analysis, the People’s Party with top candidate Sebastian Kurz “captured” 258,000 voters from the FPÖ in the wake of the “Ibiza scandal”.
Many non-voters gathered
This time the FPÖ received 258,000 votes in the non-voters camp. Through this, the Freedom Party was able to mobilize in large numbers here as well. In this way, the FPÖ was able to surpass the result obtained from 2019, when at least 235,000 votes were received from non-voters.
The FPÖ managed to retain 589,000 of the 2019 voters. The Freedom Party’s gains in the five-year comparison were two large movements: 25 percent of the ÖVP vote went to the FPÖ. On the other hand, the Blues managed to retain 76 percent of their voters.
This time the Freedom Party SPÖ got 65,000 votes. Another 25,000 came from NEOS, 14,000 each from the Greens and Now (the party of ex-Green Peter Bills, which no longer exists, mind you). Those who did not vote for the FPÖ this time migrated primarily to the camp of non-voters (82,000) and the SPÖ (29,000).
Besides the FPÖ, the ÖVP also lost to NEOS
The ÖVP lost the second largest share of NEOS: 72,000 votes. 61,000 ÖVP supporters did not vote this time, 43,000 SPÖ and 39,000 Greens. People’s Party gained from NEOS (62,000 voters), non-voters (58,000) and Greens (55,000).
Many SPÖ voters stayed home
The SPÖ had to deliver 180,000 (18 percent) votes to non-voters. 65,000 went to the FPÖ. However, the Social Democrats managed to get a lot from the Greens. 148,000 went this way (14 percent of current SPÖ voters). In 2019 the movement was the exact opposite: at that time, 14 percent of SPÖ voters switched to the Green Party. 54,000 votes came from the non-voters camp and 43,000 from the ÖVP. There were another 29,000 from the FPÖ and 28,000 from the NEOS.
Voter Flow Analysis: Where FPÖ Voters Come From
Compared to 2019, the ÖVP lost about 500,000 votes in the National Council elections, the FPÖ gained more than 600,000, and the Greens lost a third of their voters. Voter flow analysis shows where voters are coming from.
Green: Switch to SPÖ, NEOS and ÖVP
Like the ÖVP and SPÖ, the Greens lost vote share. In addition to the large trend towards the SPÖ, there was also a trend towards NEOS (57,000) and ÖVP (55,000). 45,000 people who voted for the Green Party in 2019 did not vote this time. The previous ruling party won 42,000 non-voters. 39,000 votes came from the coalition party ÖVP and 22,000 from NEOS.
21,000 FPÖ votes for NEOS
On the other hand, the Liberals were among the electoral winners. In addition to the ÖVP’s 72,000 votes, NEOS received 65,000 votes from non-voters and 57,000 from the Greens. All told, there were 21,000 from the FPÖ and 13,000 from Now. Pinks had to cede voters mainly to the ÖVP (62,000). 28,000 went to the SPÖ, 25,000 each to the FPÖ and non-voters, and 22,000 to the Green Party.
Smaller parties cannot be surprised in the election. The KPÖ lost 6,000 or 18 percent of its votes to the Green Party. Conversely, 32,000 people moved from green to deep red. The Communists received 29,000 non-voters, 20,000 from the ÖVP and 11,000 from the SPÖ. This means they are no more likely to get a seat in the National Council than the Beer Party. It collected 23,000 former ÖVP votes and 22,000 votes from Now. 19,000 votes from Beer Party voters came from the FPÖ, 12,000 from former non-voters.
