But even after the malice over this unprecedented accident subsided, the SPÖ was still unable to gain a foothold. At least in studies, no major poplar effect has yet been observed. The SPÖ has more or less consistently hovered between 22 and 25 percent. At best, it is good enough for second place behind the FPÖ.
Above all: “The SPÖ has recently consolidated at a lower level and is gaining ground,” is the pollster’s finding. Wolfgang Bachmeier (OGM). However, less by their own strength than by the weakness of their opponents. So the ÖVP and especially the Greens, most recently because of the affair surrounding their EU front candidate Lena Schilling A tail had gone into a spiral.
According to Bachmeier, there are two main reasons why the SPÖ could not make the best use of its potential: first, the obvious cross-section from its own ranks, Popler quickly revealed himself due to his left-wing position – from the red state. Leaders, powerful trade unionists Joseph Muchitch and former party scholar Hannes Androsch. “Such collisions naturally act as if the handbrake is on,” the expert analysed. After all, thanks to an even stronger red party discipline, they have recently declined.
Second, Bachmeier identifies a strategic problem with the SPÖ: there are currently too many voters on the moderate left spectrum: several parties – the Greens, the KPÖ and the Beer Party – are moving to the extreme left, while the ÖVP is moving strongly. Towards the FPÖ. “The SPÖ should occupy the empty space. Instead, under Poplar, it has moved to the left, where other parties are already crowded.
Based purely on his content, Bachmeier says Popler’s opponent, Toskozil, would have best occupied moderate left field. Given the rifts he has opened up within the party and his health problems, it is questionable whether he will be able to use his own potential.
Randy-Wagner with the best prospects?
According to Bachmeier, even the relatively modest trend of poplar’s predecessors Pamela Rendy-Wagner Better prospects given the current position of other parties.
What does all this mean for the upcoming elections? According to experts, the SPÖ can overcome all odds and reach second place in Sunday’s EU elections. It may not be an exhilarating victory, but a victory over the ÖVP could act as a trampoline for the National Council elections.
According to Bachmeier, third place in the EU elections would be a setback for the SPÖ, but such a result would be more devastating for the ÖVP, which came in first place in 2019.
