In recent years, Israel and Iran have shied away from direct conflict, engaging Iranian allies such as Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Houthi fighters in Yemen, and through targeted attacks. Cyber attacks on key Iranian nuclear scientist and Iranian centrifuges.
A year later, with the October 7 radical Islamist Hamas attack on Israel and more recently increased Israeli attacks in Lebanon, the signs are now different. Iran’s attack on Israel is the second this year. In April, Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel. The response at the time was cautious with limited strikes on Iranian air defense batteries. The attack has not been officially confirmed.
A strong response from Israel was demanded
Some in the Israeli military and politicians now consider such a reaction too low, US officials told The New York Times (“NYT”). Now we must respond more strongly. More Israelis are demanding that the government do things it hasn’t done in the past because “we can’t continue to be attacked from all sides,” former senior intelligence official Sima Shine told the NYT.
“They don’t understand what October 7th means to the Israeli people, and they are willing to take too many risks,” is a false assessment by many of Israel’s enemies. Additionally, Iran is now weakened, former top Israeli defense official Joel Kuzansky added to the “NYT.” Israel’s calls for a tougher blow against Iran are getting louder. For example, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett strongly called for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Karner: Israel will respond to attacks
In an interview with “ORF III Aktuell”, military expert Gerald Garner was convinced that Israel would respond to Iranian missile attacks. when and how to look into attacks on weapons systems and weapons production, ports and oil and nuclear facilities;
Israel has long been preparing for direct conflict with Iran. It is currently unclear which strategy and level of expansion Israel will choose. For example, there could be attacks on weapons systems and production, ports, oil and nuclear facilities, military expert Gerald Garner told ORF III.
Not from the US for attacks on nuclear power plants
US President Joe Biden firmly ruled out attacks on nuclear power plants on Wednesday – without first discussing it with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Biden said what they will do will be discussed with the Israelis. According to reports from Israel, there are currently no plans to attack the nuclear power plants because the nuclear power plants are located underground and would require US support.
Attacks on oil refineries would not only damage the already fragile Iranian economy, but also cause volatility in oil markets just weeks before the US presidential election.
Israeli and US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the NYT that a possible decision could only be made after Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year that lasts until sundown on Friday.
Very little pressure from the US?
There are fears in Europe that the White House may not be able to put enough pressure on Israel’s Netanyahu government, the Washington Post reported, citing senior European officials. In America, Netanyahu is said to have shown restraint. But right-wing extremist forces in government can have considerable influence in the process of political coordination in response to an Iranian attack.
In the United States, Tehran is seen as wanting to avoid escalation, but there are fears of a strong reaction from the Israeli side, Ian Bremmer, head of the Eurasia Group, told the Washington Post. Israelis perceive an existential threat: “They don’t feel bound by American pressure, which makes Biden look bad.”
Large Iranian army, obsolete air force
Israel may be militarily superior to Iran. Iran has the largest armed forces in the Middle East with 600,000 active soldiers and about 350,000 reserves. Israel’s military has about 170,000 soldiers and 465,000 security forces. However, the Iranian Air Force is considered outdated and modernization is not possible due to sanctions. Israel has a very modern military and, last but not least, can count on support – including military – from the United States.
