We are talking about tourism, which has been increasing in vigor and strength over the years. Especially Europe is able to register one after another. Tourists from all over the world flock to the old continent. Maybe to watch it again, or to trade his savings for memories. However, in the meantime, this trend has already reached limits, which not only affect the potential for physical or economic pressure, but also create economic consequences that fuel more and more conflict.
Demonstrations in the Canary Islands may be one trend, price effects in many tourist areas another, and the growing gap in the balance of prosperity of individual states is more alarming.
The reality is that despite Ukraine, cyber attacks, terrorist threats, rising inflation and a war in the Middle East, the number of tourists, especially in Europe, has been increasing for years. The awareness of freedom, beauty, relaxation or distance is greater than it has been in a long time. SARS-CoV-2 was certainly a stimulus for people to think more clearly throughout their lives, military conflicts a few 100 kilometers to the right of their front door do not really leave anyone indifferent and import their will. Enjoying security in their well-being.
These trends can be confirmed using the example of Spain. Tourists are expected to cross the 200 billion mark in spending this year. For the first time, more than 100 million tourists are expected in Iberia. Growth rates in tourist arrivals and consumption have been over 5% in real terms over the years. High-spending visitors may find the desire for “quality tourism” a sacred one. Tourists are divided into savers and enthusiasts, mass and luxury, but the amount of consumption remains the same.
Tourism is one cause of urban exodus.
In capital markets, this is an interesting area with many approaches. Restaurants and small guesthouses are often not listed on the stock market. But so do hotel chains, car rental companies, cruise operators, airlines, tour operators and restaurant chains. How politics deals with this issue also has potential. In Spain, Italy and increasingly in Portugal, tourism is becoming increasingly important as an economic factor, but in France it is seen as increasingly disruptive. The upcoming Olympics in Paris this summer are already being cited by locals as the main reason for the urban exodus. The retail sector already announces where … In the summer, many people simply “close” Paris. Escape to the country or plan a vacation.
But as always, there is something to remember. If you want to look at the tourism and leisure sector as a natural hedge against wars or similar situations, that will certainly work, but as usual you have to dig deep in your search for good investments. The power is still in the details. Here too, success is common and vacations are no walk in the park.
From April 24, 2024 Börse Express PDF – downloadable here
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