Analysis by district – 1st and 7th too close to call, Gozo seems to be going heavily FN

With less than 24 hours to go until actual voting commences, the latest updated Malta Survey analysis shows that the Forza Nazzjonali coalition is currently 1.6% ahead of the Partit Laburista. New district data released by Malta Survey earlier today shows projections for seats in Parliament as very close to call in certain key districts such as the 1st and the 7th. This data has been collected over a sample of around 5000 votes which is quite credible although there is a margin of error of 6% in this regard together with a confidence level of 95% on the districts.

The First District is showing a split of 51/46.5 in favour of FN which could mean that the third seat goes down to the wire. Partit Demokratiku’s 1.6% could also be a crucial factor here if the tipping point is so close. On the Second District, the PN seems to have recovered considerably from its previous lows and is now posting a figure of 34.2% which should theoretically be enough for it to regain the second seat on this heavily Labour district where Prime Minister Joseph Muscat is also contesting. The Third district also has the FN coalition with around 35% of the vote meaning that the second seat is probably also safe. The 4th District is showing a percentage of 34% for the coalition which is touch and go for the second seat although in these districts, the PL does not have enough votes for a fourth seat – although this is all within the margin of error.

On the Fifth District, the FN coalition should comfortably regain the second seat whilst on the Sixth District, Labour seems to have pulled ahead and looks a shoe in for the third seat. The PL also retain a slight lead on the 7th district however the FN coalition could tip the balance with PD polling 2.7%. The 8th District shows the PN well ahead with 61% while the 9th District is similarly showing a 64% vote for the coalition. The 10th district is showing around 64% for the FN with PL polling 36%. In these two heavily PN leaning districts, the PL polls between 35 and 36%. In the 11th district where the PN leader Simon Busuttil is contesting, the FN percentage is slightly less at 62% whilst on the 12th, the parties are more evenly matched at 54-44%.

The 13th District which is Gozo is showing a large majority for the PN/PD at 68% with Labour theoretically behind for the second seat on 31.9%. Although this is possible, the sample quotient is rather low so the result could be over representing the PN.

As regards candidates, it seems that both party leaders will garner a huge share of votes with Prime Minister Joseph Muscat polling 50% on the 2nd and 5th districts while PN leader Simon Busuttil is polling a massive 68% on the 11th district and a rather more realistic 45% on the 12th. Other candidates who are doing very well in polls are Chris Said in Gozo with 28% and Chris Fearne on the 3rd and 4th districts with well over 20% on each district. Party Deputy leaders Beppe Fenech Adami and Mario Demarco should also breeze through on the first count while Chris Cardona is seeing his vote count slightly reduced especially on the 11th district but should still be easily re-elected. Ian Borg, Ryan Callus, Kristy Debono and Robert Arrigo are also projected to lead their district while Stephen Spiteri is expected to garner almost all PN votes on the 2nd district.