Labour may have won enough support in the south east to overtake the Conservatives, according to an exclusive nationwide survey of voting intentions.
The poll found that 32% of people said they are planning to vote Labour on Thursday (June 8), compared to 25% who said that was their planned vote at the start of the election campaign.
But the proportion of respondents backing the Tories is at 27%, compared to 31% backing the party at the start of the campaign.
The Lib Dems have seen their vote share squeezed down to 7% while the number of respondents who said they supported UKIP at the start of the campaign was down from 2.8% to 2.4%, although the Greens were up to 3.4%.
Three-quarters of people who planned to vote Conservative at the start of the campaign are still backing the party but 10% have switched to Labour, and 10% say they are no longer sure who they will vote for.
84% of those who planned to vote Labour are sticking with their party and 25% of people who previously planned to vote Lib Dem said they have switched to Labour, as have 31% of those who had been planning to vote Green and 6% of those previously backing UKIP.
A quarter of respondents who said they were not sure what their vote would be at the start of the campaign are now behind Labour, 23%, compared to 4% who have decided to vote Conservative – although 68% still have not made up their minds.
54% of respondents in the region think Jeremy Corbyn has had the best general election campaign, as do 55% of Lib Dem voters – a bigger proportion than think Tim Farron is doing best.
Missing the leaders’ debate on BBC1 last week may not have helped the perception of May’s performance, as 55% of respondents said it was the wrong decision.
But the survey suggests the debates had only a limited impact on how people are planning to vote, with just 9% of respondents saying it had caused them to change their vote.
Most respondents said the party they were voting for was most important, rather than the party leader, 24%, or the local candidate, 13%.
Social care and the NHS are the issues most likely to determine how 32% of respondents are planning to vote, including 56% of those planning to vote Labour and 30% of Lib Dem voters, followed by Brexit, the key issue for 22% of respondents, including 44% of Conservative voters and 35% of UKIP voters.
Half said they have had candidate’s leaflets sent in the post, and 10% said they has seen a candidate or campaigner locally and 9% said a campaigner had knocked on their door.
However, a third, 35%, said they have not seen candidates, campaigners or received leaflets.
The study, run in partnership with Google Surveys, was completed online by more than 8,300 people across Britain.