UK General Election: Polls show Labour may have won enough support in the south east to beat the Conservatives

Labour may have won enough support in the south east to overtake the Conservatives, according to an exclusive nationwide survey of voting intentions.

The poll found that 32% of people said they are planning to vote Labour on Thursday (June 8), compared to 25% who said that was their planned vote at the start of the election campaign.

But the proportion of respondents backing the Tories is at 27%, compared to 31% backing the party at the start of the campaign.

The Lib Dems have seen their vote share squeezed down to 7% while the number of respondents who said they supported UKIP at the start of the campaign was down from 2.8% to 2.4%, although the Greens were up to 3.4%.

Three-quarters of people who planned to vote Conservative at the start of the campaign are still backing the party but 10% have switched to Labour, and 10% say they are no longer sure who they will vote for.

84% of those who planned to vote Labour are sticking with their party and 25% of people who previously planned to vote Lib Dem said they have switched to Labour, as have 31% of those who had been planning to vote Green and 6% of those previously backing UKIP.

A quarter of respondents who said they were not sure what their vote would be at the start of the campaign are now behind Labour, 23%, compared to 4% who have decided to vote Conservative – although 68% still have not made up their minds.

54% of respondents in the region think Jeremy Corbyn has had the best general election campaign, as do 55% of Lib Dem voters – a bigger proportion than think Tim Farron is doing best.

Missing the leaders’ debate on BBC1 last week may not have helped the perception of May’s performance, as 55% of respondents said it was the wrong decision.

But the survey suggests the debates had only a limited impact on how people are planning to vote, with just 9% of respondents saying it had caused them to change their vote.

Most respondents said the party they were voting for was most important, rather than the party leader, 24%, or the local candidate, 13%.

Social care and the NHS are the issues most likely to determine how 32% of respondents are planning to vote, including 56% of those planning to vote Labour and 30% of Lib Dem voters, followed by Brexit, the key issue for 22% of respondents, including 44% of Conservative voters and 35% of UKIP voters.

Half said they have had candidate’s leaflets sent in the post, and 10% said they has seen a candidate or campaigner locally and 9% said a campaigner had knocked on their door.

However, a third, 35%, said they have not seen candidates, campaigners or received leaflets.

The study, run in partnership with Google Surveys, was completed online by more than 8,300 people across Britain.